Abstract
Earthquakes have always been considered a threat to human settlements. According to the results of archeological studies, one of the behavioral patterns of humans in the face of earthquakes has been to permanently change their place of residence. The fact that the major part of Iran’s plateau is located in one of the earthquake-prone areas of the planet makes the research and investigation about the impact of these natural events on the human way of life, especially in the prehistoric era, to be studied more. In this direction and with the aim of assessing the impact of this natural phenomenon in Central Zagros and in order to know how humans react to this phenomenon, it has been studied. Our main question in this research revolved around how ancient earthquakes can be identified in archaeological contexts, and based on what evidence? What were the effects of this destructive phenomenon on the change in people’s biological patterns in the period after the incident? The information of this research has been collected from the archaeological excavations of Godin Tepe, Kangavar and Baba Kamal Tepe Tuiserkan from the Bronze Age to the end of the Iron Age III BC. In the following, based on the evidence of the severity of the destruction caused by the earthquake, an attempt has been made to reconstruct the intensity scale of the earthquakes based on the Mercalli scale. As a result, it was determined that the occurrence of destructive earthquakes with an intensity of more than 6 degrees on the Richter scale in the area of the investigation, especially in the Bronze and Iron Age, was not unrelated to the impact of climate change caused by the intensity of melting glaciers and the change in the hydrological conditions of the earth. After the Late Bronze Age, the events caused by this event caused the relative collapse of many settlements until the Iron III period, and practically at this time, the population of the region was reduced to the minimum possible.
Keywords: Ancient Earthquakes, Archeology of Eastern Central Zagros, Godin Tepe, Baba Kamal Tepe, Bronze & Iron Age.

Introduction
Throughout history, villages and cities have always been threatened by cultural or natural disasters such as war, fire, earthquakes, floods, and storms. Earthquakes are natural events that have been important causes of damage and destruction for humanity. The land of Iran, due to its location in the middle part of the Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt, is always exposed to high-intensity earthquakes and is known as one of the centers of destructive earthquakes.
Studying and researching the remaining signs of ancient earthquakes in Iran according to archaeological data can provide information on long-term seismicity in different parts of this land for researchers. By using archaeological data and matching their information with specific regional geological conditions, it tries to recognize the occurrence of earthquakes that occurred in prehistoric times and their effects on the formation of settlement patterns. 
In this regard, the Kangavar Plain and the eastern region of Central Zagros have been studied and researched, focusing on the archaeological information of Godin Tepe and Baba Kamal Tepe. This research aims to investigate and identify the archaeological studies carried out in Godin Tepe and East Central Zagros to study and investigate the events that are suspected to be natural earthquake hazards in Godin Tepe and Baba Kamal. Also, the role and effect of these earthquakes in the distribution of settlements after the earthquake will be studied in the region, seeking to answer questions such as: How can the earthquake during the settlement of Tepe Godin and Tepe Baba Kamal be recognized? In what period of the settlements of Tepe Godin and Baba Kamal and with what approximate magnitude did these earthquakes occur? How can the role and effect of these earthquakes be explained by the change and distribution of settlement patterns in the post-earthquake era of the region? In the investigations and field studies, the evidence and signs of earthquakes in the Bronze Age of Godin Tepe Kangavar and the Iron Age of Baba Kamal Tepe Tuysarkan have been observed, which can be the hypothesis proposed in this regard.

Discussion
The investigation of different cultural layers showed that the Godin site experienced at least three important events that changed the lives of the people at that time. Evidence of these events can be seen in layers III5, III4, and III2 in the Bronze Age in different years between 2400 and 1650 BC. Yang, the explorer of Godin Tepe, believes that the earthquake in these phases caused destruction and destruction in the buildings, which caused the settlement to leave and the site to be abandoned at the end of phase III2. Among the damages caused by the earthquake in Godin Tepe and Baba Kamal, the following can be mentioned:- Collapse of ceilings and walls;
• Collapse of ceilings and walls;
• Debris left on the floor of the rooms;
• Crushing of healthy pottery under the debris;
• Humans being buried under the rubble and being killed by falling bricks;
• Cracks in the walls
• Abandonment of the site after the earthquake
Using the empirical relationships and the Mercalli intensity scale (MMI), we can attribute an average magnitude of 6 to Godin III2 and Iron III Baba Kamal events, and an average of 7 to Godin III4 and III5 events. 
 According to the archaeological surveys conducted in the studied area, it can be seen that the region has experienced a decrease in human settlements and population collapse in the periods after the Godin earthquakes. The reduction of settlement areas during different phases of the Middle and New Bronze Age compared to the previous layers is observed in the plains of Kangavar, Nahavand, Asadabad, Tuysarkan, Malair, Sanghar, Sahne and Borujerd. In layer III2, the number of sites with artifacts from this period increases in the region. Young and Henrikson believe Godin III2 pottery at the same time as this phase, or probably at the end of this phase, we see an increase in the nomadic process, and it is likely that this issue has influenced the increase in the number of ancient sites. 
During the Iron Age, the central Zagros region underwent changes that led to the reduction of human settlements in Iron Age I. Archaeological data show that there was no population density in Iron Age I/II in areas like Kangavar Plain. Several abrupt climate changes occurred during the Holocene epoch. This change in weather conditions, along with the earthquakes in the region, could have been a factor that affected the settlement of human populations and settlements in the region in prehistoric times and caused a change in the settlement pattern and a decrease in human populations.

Conclusion
In this study, in order to investigate the seismicity of the eastern central Zagros region and the earthquakes that occurred in the Bronze and Iron Ages of the region, the collection of evidence and documentation of the earthquakes of the mentioned periods, obtained from archaeological excavations, was collected. Earthquake evidence in Baba Kamal Tuiserkan Tepe was obtained in the form of disturbed layers with cracks in the Iron Age III clay structure. Also, these signs have been observed in the form of ruins and human remains found under the debris, scattered artifacts and pottery on the floors of residential houses, and cracks on the walls in the Bronze Age of Godin Kangavar Tepe. Godin Tepe has witnessed three destructive earthquakes in phases III5, III4, and III2, which, in addition to the destruction that followed, caused the area to be abandoned for a long time. The abandonment of the area can also be seen on Baba Kamal hill, which was without settlement until the Parthian period.
After the Godin III period until the end of the Iron Age I and II, the reduction of settlement areas is observed not only in the Kangavar plain but also in most of the surrounding areas of the Kangavar plain in the east of central Zagros. However, some researchers have pointed out the change in weather conditions as another reason for the decrease in the number of settlements in the region, and climatological research has proven that during this period, climatic dry events occurred in Southwest Asia. According to the seismicity of the central Zagros region and the evidence of earthquakes from Godin Tepe and Baba Kamal, these climate changes, along with the occurrence of earthquakes in this region, are both factors that have provided unfavorable conditions for life in the region at the same time. Based on the data obtained from the Godin and Baba Kamal sites, a magnitude of 7 was estimated for the Godin earthquakes of layers III5 and III4 and a magnitude of 6 for the earthquakes of Godin layer III2 and Iron Age III of Baba Kamal.

Abstract
Predictive models are a component of GIS-based statistical approaches, which hold an important place in archaeological research due to advances in relevant theories and tools. Predictive models, developed through the statistical processing and analysis of environmental variables that influence site location, aid in understanding the cultural and natural landscape of the study area and contribute to the development of plans for improved cultural heritage management. This article, employing a statistical-analytical approach and data from archaeological surveys, aims to present a predictive model for a part of the eastern Kurdistan region where archaeological surveys have not yet been conducted. Prediction modelling was performed using the MaxEnt machine learning method, with eleven factors as natural variables and presence data (areas) required for modelling. The model area was divided into two experimental sections (Bijar and Dehgolan) and a prediction area (Qorveh), as the prediction model for Qorveh city was based on the natural variables and presence data from Bijar and Dehgolan cities. Finally, the prediction map was divided into four classes: very high, high, medium, and low suitability areas. The very high suitability area, which comprises 10% of the total model area, contains 59% of the Iron Age sites in eastern Kurdistan. It was found that vegetation cover, land use, and distance from rivers were among the most influential factors in the model. Also, the initial data in Qorveh indicate that 62% of the sites are located in an area comprising 8% with very high desirability, supporting the accuracy of the prediction. The AUC statistic is 0.836, and the finding value for the model has been calculated as 0.82, which indicates a prediction model with an approach value close to 1.
Keywords: Archaeological Prediction Model, GIS, MaxEnt, Eastern Kurdistan, Iron Age.

Introduction
The use of GIS and statistical modelling to map possible locations of archaeological sites has increased over the past decades. (Stefan & Sîrbu, 2010; Niknami et al., 2007; Alirezaei et al., 2019). Currently, archaeological prediction models are a powerful tool for preventing natural and human damage to historical and cultural resources (Danese et al., 2014), and for increasing the efficiency of archaeological field activities and cultural heritage management (Howard et al., 2016; Balla et al., 2014). Statistical modelling, as a perspective for identifying suitable areas for selecting prehistoric settlements, has been widely used by geographers and archaeologists (Sharafi et al., 2016; Verhagen & Dragut, 2012; Kaimaris, 2018). This method can be effectively considered a form of archaeological exploration. This paper aims to develop a concept for creating a prediction model using the MaxEnt method in the Eastern part of Kurdistan, to evaluate similar studies in archaeology, and to determine settings and suggest ways to optimise such approaches. Simultaneously, using a statistical approach based on GIS, the prediction model, and archaeological survey data from the eastern part of Kurdistan, it identifies the most favourable locations for the formation of Iron Age settlements. Accordingly, using environmental and archaeological data from Bijar and Dehgolan counties, a prediction model for Qorveh county has been developed using the MaxEnt method. Due to the lack of access to archaeological data for Qorveh County, the study area has been divided into two sections: experimental and prediction. This approach allows for predictions in the Qorveh region based on data from the experimental area (Bijar and Dehgolan counties), despite the absence of the required data. This method can thus be proposed as a study approach, with related recommendations, for another similar research.
Research Method: This research employed field and library (descriptive-analytical) methods, utilising the Geographic Information System (GIS) for the preparation and interpretation of GIS maps to analyse the settlement habitats of 96 Iron Age sites in eastern Kurdistan (Bijar, Qorveh, Dehgolan). The MaxEnt model was used to predict the distribution of Iron Age sites in eastern Kurdistan.

Data
The present study used a digital elevation model with a spatial resolution of 28 metres. Any change in these data will result in changes in climate, livelihoods, and other factors (Khosrowzadeh & Habibi, 2015: 109). The digital elevation model is used to extract new information such as slope, slope direction, and land curvature. This information is relatively common and significant, and is generally used in predictive models in archaeology. Land curvature data have also been used, which are defined as the rate of slope change (Whitworth, 2011: 469). The prediction model in this paper will be implemented using the principle of maximum entropy (MaxEnt). Such predictive modelling in archaeology requires two types of input data: environmental data (environmental variables that have a direct or indirect effect on the location of historical sites based on archaeological studies) and data related to archaeological sites, also known as presence data. The study area covers the political geography of Bijar, Qorveh, and Dehgolan counties. This study aims to make the most accurate prediction of Iron Age archaeological sites in Qorveh county using presence data (sites) from surrounding areas such as Bijar and Dehgolan counties. Given the similar climate and landscape in the eastern part of Iranian Kurdistan, the prediction of site formation locations in Qorveh County will be presented based on the MaxEnt prediction model.

Discussion
The final result of the prediction model for the eastern part of Kurdistan was based on the frequency ratio (FR) of the land cover and land use variables, which were among the most influential factors in the model. Their impact coefficients were estimated to be 24.3 and 32.6, respectively. Based on the classification of the forecast map, the low-desirability region covers the largest area within the forecast range, comprising 72% of the total. In contrast, better results can be observed due to the reduction in the area of regions in the high-desirability group. These regions, categorised as very high and high-desirability groups, comprise 10.5 percent and 7.5 percent of the total area, respectively. In contrast, it includes the largest number of areas, accounting for 89 percent of the total. These areas comprise 57 and 29 areas, respectively. While the areas with the highest potential are highlighted, they significantly reduce the area available for archaeological investigation.

Conclusion
MaxEnt modelling requires the use of presence data (areas). For this purpose, the prediction model is defined to include two categories of areas. First, the experimental area contains presence data (areas) as well as environmental factors and variables to configure the prediction model. Second: Prediction area; this section and perspective include the city of Qorveh in the eastern part of Kurdistan. The experimental area for this modelling contains 96 presence data points (areas) with an Iron Age chronology. Of these, 25% were used as test data and 75% as training data. Modelling with the MaxEnt method identifies the most influential variables by examining each one. Factors such as vegetation cover, land use, distance from the village, and distance from water sources are among the most influential variables on the model results. In this case, MaxEnt statistical analysis of other variables is also presented. Examination of the altitude variable shows that it has the greatest impact on sites within the altitude range of 1378–1400. The greatest impact of rivers on the sites occurred at a distance of 1000 metres. From 1000 to 3000 metres, the impact was least, but from 3000 to 5000 metres, the influence on site location became significant again. It has been found that at a distance of 2000 metres from villages, the likelihood of site formation is greater than at greater distances. The prediction map is divided into four groups based on the specified threshold value mentioned earlier: very high, high, medium, and low suitability areas. According to this division, the very high suitability area covers 10.5% of the total model area, and 59% of the sites (occurrence data) are located within this area. The high, medium, and low suitability areas include 30%, 6.5%, and 4.5% of the sites within these areas, respectively. Given that the very high and low suitability prediction areas are small but contain the largest percentage of sites, the model can be considered predictive.